Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Don't Do's

It's my favorite time of the year. It's baseball season & with it, FANTASY BASEBALL!!! I don't care what anyone says, fantasy baseball is the best fantasy sport out. A season long daily roster change & standing flux drama. Weather you are in a Roto or a Head to Head, if you draft early or late, make sure you don't make draft day mistakes. Here are the top 5 I expect to see in most drafts & the ones you should avoid.

5. Don't reach for players switching teams expecting a big boost in production.
In other words, don't think Adrian Beltre is going to go 25 HR/100 RBI because he went to Boston. He is a good late round pick up sure, I'd agree. But he isn't going to have the huge bounce back year nearly every expert is predicting. In fact, if he does it can hardly be considered a "bounce back." A bounce back from what? Beltre has 1 season with 100 RBI (of his 12 in the Majors). So you can immediately rule out 100 RBI's. The 25 HR? Well that's about his average anyway, so you really aren't gaining anything production wise compared to his career norms (which is .270/24 HR/87 RBI). Those are the numbers you should expect. In a league I've been in for about 9 years Beltre went 136th overall last year. That was too early then & would be too early in 2010. The owner (sorry Chris) was likely using the infamous "he's in a contract year so he's due for a big season" theory. Which brings me to my next point.

4. Don't draft a player in a contract year expecting a big boost in production.
You wouldn't believe how many people buy into this year in & year out. Remember when 30 year old Andruw Jones was a pending Free Agent in 2007? Everyone told you "he's in for a HUGE year." That year in the same league, I drafted him in round 3 (34 overall). Somehow I managed to trade him at mid season for reasonable return...& that was only because this was at the time unforeseen territory for Jones, who came of a 41 HR season. But in 2007 he ended the season with an abysmal .222/.311/.413 AVG/OBP/SLG line. The rest is history. This years candidate? Carlos Pena. I know you love the power (who wouldn't). But his batting average (the most underrated category in fantasy especially in roto leagues) was unbearable last year. The last 3 years it has plummeted from .282 to .247 to .227. His K rate has gone up, his BB rate has gone down. Sound like disaster to me.

3. Don't draft Johnny Damon.
Read why here. Seriously, just stay away from him.

2. Don't draft Stephen Strasburg.
Listen, if you are in a keeper league, go ahead & knock yourself out. But if you are in a regular yearly league, DO NOT BOTHER...he isn't going to play in the majors this year. You'll draft him in the middle rounds instead of drafting a serviceable pitcher & end up dropping him in May. Next year consider it. This year just pass & laugh at the guy or girl who drafts him.

1. Don't draft Joe Mauer in the 1st round.
I wouldn't even draft him in the 2nd round. Unless you are in an extremely deep league (like 20 plus) don't buy into "Mauer Power" in round 1 or 2. First he's a catcher...extremely too much risk (injury & otherwise) involved drafting that position in the 2nd round, let alone in the 1st. Not even Mike Piazza in his prime was regularly drafted in the 1st round when he dominated the position in the 90's & early 2000's. And Piazza had a much higher pedigree than Mauer entering their 7th season. Secondly, before last year Mauer had exactly 1 double digit HR seasons (in 2006 with 13). In my opinion, there isn't enough of a track record in the power department to draft him that high. I know he's the reigning AL MVP, but are you really going to draft him as high as 14th his ADP (Average Draft Position)? If he duplicates last season, he will be worth it. But are you going to gamble that he duplicates that? Go ahead...I won't

So there you have it. Remember, that while you can't win your league on draft day, you can sure lose it making any of these mistakes. Draft wisely.