5 Fantasy Players Who Will Outperform Their ADP

Every year in fantasy you struggle with decisions on when to draft certain players. Is the 3rd round too early to draft say a Derek Jeter or a Dustin Pedroia? For me it is more psychological than just picking the right player. Reaches really depend on 2 things. Position depth & the player's individual draft value (as opposed to their performance value). Here are the players that I feel you can go a round up to get:

5. Alcides Escobar of the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a great glove & with JJ Hardy traded to Minnesota, he will stay in the lineup. Like many youngsters, Escobar doesn't walk a lot, 4 times in 134 PA (Plate Appearances). But he does run, Alcides had 42 SB last year in the PCL (Pacific Coast League) & 34 the year before that. If your league counts OBP or SLG, you should pass. But in a normal 5X5 league he is Jose Reyes with less power (& hopefully less injury risk). His runs will depend on where he hits in the Brewers lineup, but worth the risk in the ultra thin SS position.

4. Brian Matusz of the Baltimore Orioles. He's having a good spring, yet by the looks of his ADP* (Average Draft Position) of 219, no one is noticing. Matusz is a ROY (Rookie of the Year) candidate that could surprise. Matusz will be an excellent source of Ks during the season (has a 18 K to 2 BB in 14 1/3 IP in the spring thus far) & for a young pitcher he doesn't walk an astronomical amount of hitters. If you are thinking of drafting Andy Pettitte, roll the dice with Matusz instead. In limited time last year, Matusz had a higher K rate (7.67 to 6.84) & a lower BB rate (2.82 to 3.51)than Andy. The risk may be worth the potential reward with Matusz.

3. Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. I absolutely love this guy. While he only has 4 extra bases so far in the spring, he is FLYING up the draft boards. & why wouldn't he? Gonzalez is a legit 5X5 fantasy option even in a 12 team leagues. Gonzalez's only issue is going to be playing time. The Rockies OF is pretty crowded at the time being. He likely will not play against lefties even though he hits them pretty well. His home numbers obviously carry the typical Rockies' player road/home differential (hitting over 40 points higher on the road). But he gave the Phillies nightmares in the playoffs, & went 13/16 in HR & SB respectively in 317 PA last season. That means he's 20/20 material with 450 PA.

2. Garrett Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates. While many owners will jump on popular "fantasy sleepers" like Jason Heyward, I'll be chuckling & draft Jones 3-4 rounds later. This isn't a diss on Heyward who is doing exceptionally well this spring, but Heyward's ADP is in the 166 area. Meanwhile Garrett Jones is in the 208 range. That's 42 picks later for a proven ML player who hit 20 HR/10 SB last year in 358 PA. Jones is also a Pirate, making him easily forgettable on draft day. But it also makes him the perfect post hype candidate.

1. Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins. Last year I went a round early on Ubaldo Jimenez & it paid dividends. This year Francisco Liriano wears the crown of an arm I'm taking a gamble on by selecting him well ahead of my peers. I saw him pitch in the Dominican Republic...in person. He was simply DOMINANT, throwing 5 shutout innings while striking out 10 in the Dominican League title game. Liriano CARRIED Escogido to it's first Caribbean World Series title since 1990. His fastball was back to 2006 speed & he had devastating control of his nasty slider. Thus far in spring training, he has 16 Ks in 10 IP. Combine that with his winter league stats & his K rate is at a semen spilling 11.75 K/9IP ratio, with a K/BB (Strikeout to Walk) Ratio of 8.75. His ADP is 209. That's like in the 17th round (in a 12 team format). Do not let him get that far. You'll be sorry. Also, ignore the reports that say Minnesota will put him in the pen. He's going to be a starter.

You can safely go a round or two early on any of these guys. They will perform past their draft values.

*ADP is an average draft position may differ per site.