5 Fantasy Players Who Will Outperform Their ADP

Every year in fantasy you struggle with decisions on when to draft certain players. Is the 3rd round too early to draft say a Derek Jeter or a Dustin Pedroia? For me it is more psychological than just picking the right player. Reaches really depend on 2 things. Position depth & the player's individual draft value (as opposed to their performance value). Here are the players that I feel you can go a round up to get:

5. Alcides Escobar of the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a great glove & with JJ Hardy traded to Minnesota, he will stay in the lineup. Like many youngsters, Escobar doesn't walk a lot, 4 times in 134 PA (Plate Appearances). But he does run, Alcides had 42 SB last year in the PCL (Pacific Coast League) & 34 the year before that. If your league counts OBP or SLG, you should pass. But in a normal 5X5 league he is Jose Reyes with less power (& hopefully less injury risk). His runs will depend on where he hits in the Brewers lineup, but worth the risk in the ultra thin SS position.

4. Brian Matusz of the Baltimore Orioles. He's having a good spring, yet by the looks of his ADP* (Average Draft Position) of 219, no one is noticing. Matusz is a ROY (Rookie of the Year) candidate that could surprise. Matusz will be an excellent source of Ks during the season (has a 18 K to 2 BB in 14 1/3 IP in the spring thus far) & for a young pitcher he doesn't walk an astronomical amount of hitters. If you are thinking of drafting Andy Pettitte, roll the dice with Matusz instead. In limited time last year, Matusz had a higher K rate (7.67 to 6.84) & a lower BB rate (2.82 to 3.51)than Andy. The risk may be worth the potential reward with Matusz.

3. Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies. I absolutely love this guy. While he only has 4 extra bases so far in the spring, he is FLYING up the draft boards. & why wouldn't he? Gonzalez is a legit 5X5 fantasy option even in a 12 team leagues. Gonzalez's only issue is going to be playing time. The Rockies OF is pretty crowded at the time being. He likely will not play against lefties even though he hits them pretty well. His home numbers obviously carry the typical Rockies' player road/home differential (hitting over 40 points higher on the road). But he gave the Phillies nightmares in the playoffs, & went 13/16 in HR & SB respectively in 317 PA last season. That means he's 20/20 material with 450 PA.

2. Garrett Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates. While many owners will jump on popular "fantasy sleepers" like Jason Heyward, I'll be chuckling & draft Jones 3-4 rounds later. This isn't a diss on Heyward who is doing exceptionally well this spring, but Heyward's ADP is in the 166 area. Meanwhile Garrett Jones is in the 208 range. That's 42 picks later for a proven ML player who hit 20 HR/10 SB last year in 358 PA. Jones is also a Pirate, making him easily forgettable on draft day. But it also makes him the perfect post hype candidate.

1. Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins. Last year I went a round early on Ubaldo Jimenez & it paid dividends. This year Francisco Liriano wears the crown of an arm I'm taking a gamble on by selecting him well ahead of my peers. I saw him pitch in the Dominican Republic...in person. He was simply DOMINANT, throwing 5 shutout innings while striking out 10 in the Dominican League title game. Liriano CARRIED Escogido to it's first Caribbean World Series title since 1990. His fastball was back to 2006 speed & he had devastating control of his nasty slider. Thus far in spring training, he has 16 Ks in 10 IP. Combine that with his winter league stats & his K rate is at a semen spilling 11.75 K/9IP ratio, with a K/BB (Strikeout to Walk) Ratio of 8.75. His ADP is 209. That's like in the 17th round (in a 12 team format). Do not let him get that far. You'll be sorry. Also, ignore the reports that say Minnesota will put him in the pen. He's going to be a starter.

You can safely go a round or two early on any of these guys. They will perform past their draft values.

*ADP is an average draft position may differ per site.

Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Draft Day Don't Do's

It's my favorite time of the year. It's baseball season & with it, FANTASY BASEBALL!!! I don't care what anyone says, fantasy baseball is the best fantasy sport out. A season long daily roster change & standing flux drama. Weather you are in a Roto or a Head to Head, if you draft early or late, make sure you don't make draft day mistakes. Here are the top 5 I expect to see in most drafts & the ones you should avoid.

5. Don't reach for players switching teams expecting a big boost in production.
In other words, don't think Adrian Beltre is going to go 25 HR/100 RBI because he went to Boston. He is a good late round pick up sure, I'd agree. But he isn't going to have the huge bounce back year nearly every expert is predicting. In fact, if he does it can hardly be considered a "bounce back." A bounce back from what? Beltre has 1 season with 100 RBI (of his 12 in the Majors). So you can immediately rule out 100 RBI's. The 25 HR? Well that's about his average anyway, so you really aren't gaining anything production wise compared to his career norms (which is .270/24 HR/87 RBI). Those are the numbers you should expect. In a league I've been in for about 9 years Beltre went 136th overall last year. That was too early then & would be too early in 2010. The owner (sorry Chris) was likely using the infamous "he's in a contract year so he's due for a big season" theory. Which brings me to my next point.

4. Don't draft a player in a contract year expecting a big boost in production.
You wouldn't believe how many people buy into this year in & year out. Remember when 30 year old Andruw Jones was a pending Free Agent in 2007? Everyone told you "he's in for a HUGE year." That year in the same league, I drafted him in round 3 (34 overall). Somehow I managed to trade him at mid season for reasonable return...& that was only because this was at the time unforeseen territory for Jones, who came of a 41 HR season. But in 2007 he ended the season with an abysmal .222/.311/.413 AVG/OBP/SLG line. The rest is history. This years candidate? Carlos Pena. I know you love the power (who wouldn't). But his batting average (the most underrated category in fantasy especially in roto leagues) was unbearable last year. The last 3 years it has plummeted from .282 to .247 to .227. His K rate has gone up, his BB rate has gone down. Sound like disaster to me.

3. Don't draft Johnny Damon.
Read why here. Seriously, just stay away from him.

2. Don't draft Stephen Strasburg.
Listen, if you are in a keeper league, go ahead & knock yourself out. But if you are in a regular yearly league, DO NOT BOTHER...he isn't going to play in the majors this year. You'll draft him in the middle rounds instead of drafting a serviceable pitcher & end up dropping him in May. Next year consider it. This year just pass & laugh at the guy or girl who drafts him.

1. Don't draft Joe Mauer in the 1st round.
I wouldn't even draft him in the 2nd round. Unless you are in an extremely deep league (like 20 plus) don't buy into "Mauer Power" in round 1 or 2. First he's a catcher...extremely too much risk (injury & otherwise) involved drafting that position in the 2nd round, let alone in the 1st. Not even Mike Piazza in his prime was regularly drafted in the 1st round when he dominated the position in the 90's & early 2000's. And Piazza had a much higher pedigree than Mauer entering their 7th season. Secondly, before last year Mauer had exactly 1 double digit HR seasons (in 2006 with 13). In my opinion, there isn't enough of a track record in the power department to draft him that high. I know he's the reigning AL MVP, but are you really going to draft him as high as 14th his ADP (Average Draft Position)? If he duplicates last season, he will be worth it. But are you going to gamble that he duplicates that? Go ahead...I won't

So there you have it. Remember, that while you can't win your league on draft day, you can sure lose it making any of these mistakes. Draft wisely.